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Three Questions I Ask Myself
"2008: The Year Everything Changes"

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/29/2008 6:15:00 PM

Well, here we are – a year-and-a-half since the start of the crisis, and hardly out of the woods. While we at EWI take pride in having prepared our subscribers, we take no pleasure in watching the devastation that this crisis has been causing. But it is here. And, probably like you and lots of other people, I keep asking myself these three questions...

Filed Under: foreclosure, subprime, liquidity, mortgage crisis, deflation, South Sea Bubble
Category: Stocks


Fannie, Freddie Signal Bigger Problems for U.S. Economy
The chaos in housing is just the leading edge of a 'great transformation.'

by Peter Kendall
7/10/2008 2:45:00 PM

The chaos in housing is just the leading edge of a “great transformation,” one that extends beyond real estate to the larger economy and many aspects of our everyday lives. See this story about Fannie Mae's recent troubles.

Filed Under: Fannie Mae, housing, subprime
Category: Real Estate


Bear Stearns Explained: How Financial Values Can Disappear

by Editorial Staff
5/2/2008 4:15:00 PM

The big question that still remains about the demise of Bear Stearns is, how did its mortgage-backed securities lose their value so quickly? It's a question that Bob Prechter has pondered in a more general way for his best-selling business book, Conquer the Crash. In this excerpt, Bob carefully explains exactly how financial values can disappear.

Filed Under: Bear Stearns, subprime, asset prices, stock markets, bond market, Bear market, deflation Federal Reserve, JP Morgan, conquer the crash
Category: Classic Prechter


A Non-Guarantee Put to the Test (part 1)
The Ballad of Fannie & Freddie

by Robert Folsom
3/13/2008 2:30:00 PM

Once upon a time, the U.S. government created the secondary mortgage market. (During FDR's New Deal, if you're dying to know). With help from the agency known as Fannie Mae, this government creation grew tall and strong. What's more, the government held a virtual monopoly over its creation for several decades -- and after all, the market was its creation....

Filed Under: credit crunch, Freddie Mac, government bonds, great depression, Real Estate, real-estate, recession, subprime, subprime mortgage, subprime mortgages, Wall Street
Category: Economy


The REAL "First Big Book on the Credit Crunch"
After the Fact Acclaim: Irony Speaks for Itself

by Robert Folsom
3/7/2008 5:15:00 PM

Yesterday I said that the Economist magazine had just published a favorable review of a book about the housing market crisis. The author is a respected financial journalist, and a thumbs up from a publication like the Economist suggests a book that deserves to be taken seriously. But consider these other quotes, specifically the "who" & "when" behind them...

Filed Under: Bear market, conquer the crash, deflation, Fed rate cut, Federal Reserve, Real Estate, recession, subprime, subprime mortgages, Wall Street
Category: Real Estate


Was Henry Ford Stupid About History?
An Important Question

by Robert Folsom
10/5/2007 11:25:00 AM

As the bubble bursts, let's remember that overpriced real estate was the effect, while psychology was the cause. Housing became a bubble when buyers, sellers, and lenders all thought they could ignore history -- if they gave history any thought at all. And anyone who supposes that the public has lost its appetite for shortcuts, can perhaps explain why A&E's "Flip This House" remains on the air, now in its third season. Or why, when I type subprime mortgage loan into Google, I get 1.98 million results -- including 10 "sponsored links" on the page, two of which sit atop the search results proper...

Filed Under: subprime, housing
Category: News


How to be a Financial Journalist
It's easier than it looks...

by Alan Hall
10/1/2007 11:05:00 AM

The scene: A busy financial newsroom. A cigar-chomping editor gives a junior financial reporter the lay of the land. "If the stock market rallies on good news, or falls on bad news, you got an easy story, kid. But if the market rallies on bad news or falls on good news, then that's a tough job. On days like that, you earn your money -- you gotta get creative." That was the way financial journalism used to be. Here's an example:

Filed Under: subprime, Economy, credit crunch
Category: Economy


Ponzi Enters the Money Markets

by Editorial Staff
8/20/2007 3:30:00 PM

In August of 1919, 37-year old Charles P. Bianchi of Boston received a piece of mail that included a "postal reply coupon." He had never seen one before, though at the time such coupons were widely used to simplify the pre-payment of return postage for mail sent abroad. Recipients would trade the coupons for postage stamps, according to an established currency exchange rate.

Filed Under: subprime, money market funds
Category: News


Investigating the Event Cascade
Want crystal clear hindsight? Start with a valid premise.

by Alan Hall
8/1/2007 4:40:00 PM

Aircraft disasters are examined in minute detail. When a cause is found, investigators seek causes of the cause as they work back through the "event cascade" that initiated the crash. We do this same after-the-fact investigation of financial crashes and social events like wars, ostensibly in an effort to learn from our mistakes. Generally speaking, we humans do better at understanding the airplane crashes.

Filed Under: subprime, housing, real-estate, Market Watch, Economy, Freddie Mae
Category: Cultural Trends


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As the markets enter what Bob Prechter calls "the point of recognition," we notice that mainstream media pundits who get it start to notice us, our analysts and our forecasts. You can browse dozens of recent media articles about EWI in the EWI Press Room.
 
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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.