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VIDEO (Forex): Often, Basic Elliott Is All You Need
"Simple" can be powerful.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
11/10/2009 3:15:00 PM

Every Friday, Elliott Wave International's Senior Currency Strategist Jim Martens records a weekly video for the subscribers of his intensive Currency Specialty Service. In the one you are about to watch, Jim explains how the same basic pattern that R.N. Elliott discovered back in the 1930s is often all you need to make forecasts -- for the EUR/USD, in this example.

Filed Under: eur/usd, Elliott
Category: Currencies


EUR/USD (Forex): How to Forecast Market Moves Before They Occur
Not every Elliott wave forecast works out. But the method's objectivity still trumps most discussions about "market fundamentals."

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
11/4/2009 7:15:00 PM

News stories move the markets -- that's what just about every investor believes. But can you predict what the market will do before the news is released? Let's look at a fresh example: the actio in the EUR/USD on November 4, when the Federal Reserve Bank announced its latest decision on the U.S. interest rates.

Filed Under: Currencies, forex, eur/usd, Federal Reserve, interest rates, u.s. dollar
Category: Currencies


EUR/USD (Forex): Big Moves, But What's the Reason?
Despite all odds, the U.S. dollar is showing serious strength.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
10/27/2009 3:00:00 PM

Early on October 26, the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the euro (and the most widely-traded forex pair) began an out-of-the-blue slide from near $1.50. If the dollar's dramatic show of strength in the midst of all the doomsday scenarios surprised you, you're not alone. Anyone looking at the Monday morning forex headlines was likely caught off guard. What's behind the dollar rally?

Filed Under: u.s. dollar, Currencies, forex, eur/usd, euro, china, foreign exchange reserves
Category: Currencies


The New Carry Trade
How long the new "carry trade" funded by low U.S. interest rates may last?

by Jason Farkas
10/12/2009 4:45:00 PM

As the recession has taken hold, short-term U.S. interest rates have been pushed down to .25% or lower. This encourages those who want to borrow to do so in U.S. dollars, which is exactly how the low Japanese interest rates of the past boom cycle encouraged borrowing in yen. But markets can move fast when they head down, and when a carry trade unwinds, few things move faster.

Filed Under: us dollar, australian dollar, euro, yen, Federal Reserve, Bernanke helicopter, EUR/JPY, eur/usd, AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, interest rates
Category: Currencies


U.S. Dollar: Another Piece of the Puzzle?
Individual investors can be wrong about a market trend. But countries?

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
9/15/2009 10:30:00 AM
Unless you're a financial professional with a keen interest in international bond markets, you probably didn't even notice an obscure news item from Germany last week. Yet it may speak volumes about the coming trend change in the U.S. dollar.
Filed Under: Currencies, forex, u.s. dollar, dollar Index, euro, eur/usd, foreign exchange
Category: Currencies


Death of the U.S. Dollar?
Not so fast: We've been here before.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
9/9/2009 12:15:00 PM
One look at the latest U.S. dollar news headlines, and it seems like the buck has nowhere to hide. The buck is toast. Stick a fork in it. It's done. But wait -- we've been here before.
Filed Under: u.s. dollar, euro-dollar exchange rate, forex, currencies, euro, eur/usd, usd, eur, jpy
Category: Currencies


EUR/USD (Forex): A Choppy Mess... How Much Longer?
Elliott wave patterns suggest a coming resolution to the EUR/USD's limbo.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
7/28/2009 2:15:00 PM

If you've been frustrated lately by the lack of action in the euro-dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) you're not alone. Since early June the pair has gone nowhere, but that's only the half of it: It has also swung wildly in the 500-pip range between $1.43 and 1.37, as this chart shows...

Filed Under: forex, Currencies, u.s. dollar, euro, eur/usd, dx
Category: Currencies


Forex: Look for Chart Patterns, Not the News
Currency trading does not have to revolve around watching the headlines.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
7/21/2009 2:30:00 PM

Financial markets develop as a series of patterns. If you're like most investors and believe that markets are random -- or, at best, moved by "good" or "bad" news -- you will often find Elliott-based forecasts in conflict with your "macro" views. 

Filed Under: forex, currency trading, u.s. dollar, euro, eur/usd
Category: Currencies


U.S. Dollar: Are We Seeing Evidence of a Turn?
Enjoy another Market Insight comment by EWI's Senior Currency Strategist

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/22/2009 12:45:00 PM
Jim Martens, Elliott Wave International's Senior Currency Strategist, regularly posts thoughts on the business of forex trading for his subscribers. Below is Jim's latest Market Insight, posted on the morning of May 22.
Filed Under: u.s. dollar, eur/usd, Usd/chf, sterling, money management, forex, Currencies, china, u.s. debt
Category: Currencies


EUR/USD: Sometimes, the Less You Say, the Better
You should worry about the markets LESS when they are unclear and MORE when they are clear.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/6/2009 10:30:00 AM
If you trade forex, you've probably noticed that some markets have behaved erratically in recent weeks. The EUR/USD, for example, the most widely-traded currency pair, would go sideways for days -- but then start swinging wildly from hour to hour. What's going on? Here are some thoughts on this from Jim Martens, EWI's Senior Currency Strategist.
Filed Under: forex, Currencies, eur/usd, prechter
Category: Currencies


EUR/USD: Clarity Comes From Having Perspective
Even in tough markets, Elliott wave analysis offers you an edge.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/16/2009 4:00:00 PM
This is a good week to talk about clarity of Elliott wave patterns in forex market charts. For example, take a look at the messy patterns the euro-dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) has been showing since Monday, April 13...
Filed Under: eur/usd, euro-dllar exchange rate, forex, Currencies
Category: Currencies


How to Trade Forex around Major News Releases
As the saying goes, you miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/13/2009 6:00:00 PM

Any experienced forex trader will tell you that trading currencies when a major economic report gets released can be treacherous. Probably the most infamous of all scheduled news releases -- infamous for its treachery, that is -- are the U.S. interest rate announcements by the Federal Reserve Bank. But market action on those days can also mean opportunity for a forex trader who is properly positioned BEFORE the announcement. Here are some thoughts on how to do that...

Filed Under: forex, Currencies, Federal Reserve, eur/usd, FOMC, interest rates
Category: Currencies


EUR/USD: Don't Get Distracted by News
What matters to the trend is not the news -- it's how forex traders react to it.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/9/2009 3:15:00 PM

Today (Thu., April 9) gave us a classic example of why you cannot rely on "fundamentals" to predict which way the U.S. dollar and other currencies will go. Here's why...

Filed Under: forex, Currencies, eur/usd
Category: Currencies


VIDEO: What Is the BEST Wave Pattern for Trading Forex?
A new video lesson from EWI's Senior Currency Strategist using Swiss franc, USD/CHF, as an example.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/13/2009 11:00:00 AM

On Fridays, Elliott Wave International’s Senior Currency Strategist Jim Martens records a weekly video for his subscribers. In this February 27 video you are about to watch, he answers a frequent question: “What is your favorite wave pattern for trading currencies?” using the Swiss franc, USD/CHF, as an example.

Filed Under: forex, eur/usd, Currencies, Swiss franc, Usd/chf
Category: Currencies


EUR/USD: Don’t Fall for the Headlines
How do you trade currencies when conventional market explanations fail?

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/10/2009 10:00:00 PM

Conventional explanations of the action in the forex markets are very good at showing how one news story or another has "moved the markets.” Trouble is, as convincing as those explanations are, all too often they give you zero edge in helping to anticipate what the market will do next. Well, here's one method that DOES -- and here is proof.

Filed Under: euro-dollar exchange rate, eur/usd, forex
Category: Currencies


Forex: Don't Sweat the Risk
Once you reach an opinion on the market, just "sail away."

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/25/2009 4:15:00 PM

How do you remove the temptation to change your opinions about a trade with every price tick? Here's one approach to handle market risk, as described by Jim Martens, EWI's Senior Currency Strategist. Read on...

Filed Under: foreign exchange, forex trading, Currencies, euro-dollar exchange rate, eur/usd
Category: Currencies


EUR/USD: How to Get Your "News" Before It Hits Newswires
A news report can act as a catalyst for the market, but the subject of the report is almost irrelevant.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/17/2009 4:15:00 PM
News moves the markets, goes the universally accepted notion among traders and investors. And yet, using Elliott wave analysis, you can predict market moves – without relying on the news. How is that possible? Let's take a close look at a fresh example.
Filed Under: euro-dollar exchange rate, eur/usd, forex, Currencies, Moody's, foreign exchange
Category: Currencies


EUR/USD: Elliott Wave Triangle vs. "Stimulus Package"
How can the same news event can be offered to explain both bullish AND bearish action in the USD?

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/12/2009 4:30:00 PM
Here's what's interesting. After Tuesday's much-awaited U.S. bank rescue plan announcement, the DJIA fell sharply. Why? Apparently, because the plan's details failed to convince investors that it would actually work. You might think that the U.S. dollar would also be in a free fall – yet it's actually been rising: Against the euro, it gained close to 300 points since Tuesday. Why? Apparently, for the same reason! Let's take a closer look at what's going on…
Filed Under: banking bailout, u.s. dollar, eur/usd, forex, Currencies
Category: Currencies


EUR/USD: Will the Rally Continue?
Fundamental analysis cannot tell you where the USD is going from here.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/6/2009 3:30:00 PM
Following Friday's unemployment report, the U.S. dollar promptly lost to the euro. While this may seem like a "normal" market reaction to a bad economic number, think back to January 9, when the previous sharply negative jobs number was released. Following that report, the USD gained, and strongly. So, the same bad employment number can send the dollar higher and lower? Interesting...
Filed Under: unemployment, Nonfarm Payrolls, forex, dollar, eur/usd
Category: Currencies


Forex: Teach Yourself to Watch, Not Act
Do you have the discipline to stand aside for days or weeks between trades?

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/4/2009 6:30:00 PM

Like me, you too may enjoy reading the thoughts of experienced foreign exchange professionals on the business of trading. Jim Martens, EWI's Senior Currency Strategist, regularly posts those in the "Market Insight" section of his intensive Currency Specialty Service. Here is a short adaptation of Jim's "Insights" from January...

Filed Under: forex, Currencies, eur/usd, foreign exchange
Category: Currencies


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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.