RATE-ing In Vain: The Fed Is Not In Control
Bob Prechter reveals that interest rates do not drive stock prices

US Dollar Rally: On The Wings Of A Hawk?
Fed easy-money policy wasn't the reason for the dollar's weakness, nor is the Fed's latest move a reason for its strength.

Robert Prechter on Herding and Markets' "Irony and Paradox"
To anyone new to socionomics, the stock market is saturated with paradox.

"Have you ever watched a dog interact with its owner? The dog repeatedly looks at the owner, taking cues constantly. The owner is the leader, and the dog is a pack animal alert for every cue of what the owner wants it to do. Participants in the stock market are doing something similar. They constantly watch their fellows, alert for every clue of what they will do next. The difference is that there is no leader. The crowd is the perceived leader, but it comprises nothing but followers. When there is no leader to set the course, the herd cues only off itself, making the mood of the herd the only factor directing its actions."

EUR/USD Breaks Below Major Price Point
Just when everyone thought the U.S. dollar was a goner, it rebounds!

On January 27, the EUR/USD (exchange rate between the euro and U.S. dollar and the most widely trade forex pair) slipped below $1.40 for the first time in six months. In other words, the dollar, considered by most analysts all but doomed a short while ago, now stands at a 6-month high against its main competitor. Ironic? Paradoxical? You bet. Here's more on that from Robert Prechter.

The Fed's Presumed Inflation—Mostly a Mirage

The Fed has expanded the U.S. monetary base by more than 150% since the beginning of the recession, thereby assuring inflation, according to many analysts and basic common sense. But hold your horses—even though we agree that the Fed's actions will eventually bring on inflation, our near-term forecast is for deflation first, based in part on the credit implosion.

Can The Fed Ensure Economic Recovery? RATE-ing In Vain

The Fed: At Last, Others See that the Emperor Wears No Clothes

Even longer than U.S. Representative Ron Paul has campaigned against the Fed, Bob Prechter has steadily built the case that the Fed is powerless to change the forces in the economy. He thinks the biggest mistake is to view the Fed as a leader rather than a follower of the markets. Here's why.

U.S. Dollar Soars To A Five-Week High: What Now?
"Fundamentals" can hardly explain the dollar's recent strength

The Weakest Link
Let’s address a key point that most mainstream analysts seem to have missed.

With all the talk about the end of the Great Recession, I continually ask myself the following questions: Am I just being a pessimist for believing in a deflationary depression? Am I a fool to fight those who make the rules: Congress, the Fed and the Treasury? So, let’s address a key point that most mainstream analysts seem to have missed...

Inflation? Disinflation? In Your Dreams
Round two of deflation is heading this way.

On October 1, the U.S Treasuries zoomed upward as the DJIA saw its first material decline in six months. In percentage terms, the Dow's decline was insignificant -- yet bonds had one of their best single-day rallies since the summer low. Why is this important? Here's why...

The Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged: Now What?
Or, an even better question: So what?

What an interesting day of trading we saw in stocks on Wednesday (Sept. 23.) On the same day, we had: 1. A single event -- the Fed's interest rate announcement; 2. The stock market's bullish -- and -- bearish "reaction" to it, and 3. Several news stories explaining why stocks rallied -- and -- declined after the event. One question remains: Where will stocks go from here?

3 BIG Reasons To Avoid Stocks

Here are 3 reasons why you should make sure that your investment capital is not invested “long” in stocks, stock mutual funds, stock index futures, stock options or any other equity-based investment or speculation.

Deflating the Inflationists' Arguments

You can talk about inflation all you want, but Bob Prechter says it the best: "YOu can't beat deflation in a credit-based system."

June 24 FOMC Meeting: Can the Fed Defeat the Bear?

t's Federal Open Market Committee time again. And, even before the June 24 meeting adjourned, word-parsers were dissecting the "minutes" like a high school biology student with a frog. In short: While everyone with a pulse guesses at the meaning of Bernanke-speak, ALL of them hope his words give the stock market something to celebrate.

The Fed Does Not Lead the Bond Market, It FOLLOWS

U.S. Bond Market Stays One Step A-"Fed"

Long Wal-Mart, Short Liberty
When the government taxes one citizen on behalf of another, we are all diminished.

At some point, the burden of the U.S. national debt burden may result in a forced restructuring to avoid default. This restructuring will be on terms dictated to us by our creditors…one of whom is a communist regime. I wonder how agreeable those terms will be.

"Deflation Will Catch Them All Off Guard"
"The next [Federal Reserve] chairman will have his own era."

On this day of Ben Bernanke's testimony in Washington, consider this quote from Bob Prechter's November 2005 Elliott Wave Theorist: "Like the entrenched belief in continued inflation, there is a widespread expectation of smooth sailing under Bernanke. With virtually everyone prepared for either good times or severe inflation, bad times and deflation will catch them all off guard." More…

U.S. Stocks: A Chicken With Its Fed Cut Off?

On December 16, the Dow Jones Industrial Average supposedly soared more than 300 points after the Federal Reserve cut rates to the record low .25% to 0% range. On December 17, the stock market slid back into negative territory. Explanation? How's this: The market leads, not follows, the Fed...

Why The Fed Can't Print Our Way Out Of Deflation

"Big Ben Fires Up The Choppers," reveals a recent Forbes article. "Choppers" being the "helicopter" from which the Federal Reserve will drop bundles of printed money into the hands of the public, thus staving off deflation. Will it work? Find out today...