Elliott Wave International - Free Updates

EURUSD: Stuck In the Middle, But For How Long?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 11:45:00 ET

Scanning forex news headlines this morning (Dec. 3) on four major online news agency websites, I didn't see a single one about the U.S. dollar. To a contrarian, the fact that the media is quiet about the dollar means one thing: Something's about to happen in this market.

Fibonacci: From A Buzzword To Real-Life Application

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 06:00:00 ET

Technical analysts, in recent years, have elevated “Fibonacci” to the level of a buzzword. Despite this unfortunate fact, in skilled hands, Fibonacci ratios can prove extremely handy when you're calculating a market retracement or price target. The most popular of these ratios are the .618 and 1.618. But here's a new twist on the old Fibonacci technique -- "Reverse Fibonacci"...

Deflation, Fiat Money, and Market Destruction

Robert Folsom — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 05:45:00 ET

The only thing more remarkable than this public comment is the fact that it drew virtually no attention -- but if nothing else, it does show what Bernanke has on his mind....

Update: Today is Not Like 1929! No, It's Worse

Susan C. Walker — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 12:45:00 ET

Ben Bernanke says that today's current economic and financial woes don't compare with the Great Depression in the late 1920s and 1930s. Too bad he can't see what Bob Prechter sees – that today's problems are actually worse.

Stocks: Elliott Waves In Action

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 06:30:00 ET

About two months ago, on Friday, October 10, a friend of mine called me up and said he wanted my opinion on the stock market. “I’m talking to a buddy in New York, and he says it’s one of those moments when fortunes are made. He says the time to buy is now, when stocks are cheap. What do you think?” What I told him was this: wait. Here's why...

Stocks & Crude: A "Rare" Alignment?

Nico Isaac — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 05:30:00 ET

According to the mainstream experts, the joined status of stocks and crude (to the downside) is as rare an event as Hallye's Comet. A myth-busting chart of the 52-week correlation between oil and stocks since 1996 strongly DISAGREES...

What the Bear Market Has in Store, Part 3

Susan C. Walker — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 03:15:00 ET

Now is the time to catch up with Bob Prechter's predictions for a bear market brought on by a negative social mood and realize how many of them seem to be playing out in current events. It begs the question: How many more will happen as he forecast?

A Modern "Twist" to a Very Old Scheme

Robert Folsom — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 12:45:00 ET

He realized he could game the system for a legal profit -- arbitrage it, if you will. He began telling people about his discovery. And, without revealing too many details, Bianchi also said that the more money he had the more he could make...

What the Bear Market Has in Store, Part 2

Susan C. Walker — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 05:00:00 ET

Here is the second part of the list of forecasts for finance, the economy, politics and social trends that Bob Prechter made back in 2003. Notice how eerily true to life they seem to be now.

Commodity Opportunity: Go Hog Wild!

Nico Isaac — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 04:45:00 ET

While most folks out there have turkey on the brain for the upcoming holiday -- Elliott Wave International's chief commodity expert Jeffrey Kennedy is thinking of the other white meat: Pork. Namely, Jeffery has just identified a near-term opportunity in pork belly futures.

Private Ownership, Collective Thanksgiving

Robert Folsom — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 03:45:00 ET

They considered this turn in their fortunes to be miraculous; with the benefit of hindsight, what they had discovered was the miraculous benefits of private ownership and free markets.

EURUSD: Patience

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 04:15:00 ET

You may know know that since last week, it has rallied strongly – about 600 pips, so far – pushing the exchange rate back up to $1.30 and robbing the buck of its latest gains. Despite the rally, the "triangle" interpretation of the current picture in the EURUSD that we've talked about on these pages last week still stands...

Despite the rally, the "triangle" interpretation of the current picture in the EURUSD still stands

"Commodities Have Crashed." Now What?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 06:00:00 ET

Commodities have taken a severe beating in recent months, as EWI's founder and CEO Bob Prechter points out in his October Elliott Wave Theorist. And they have dropped even farther since Bob published the Theorist in mid-October. Specifically, Platinum is now down 67%, Copper 60%, Oil 59%, Silver 61%, Wheat 61%, Corn 52%, Soybeans 50%, Cotton 54%. The question is, now what?

How Much Are You Down For in the Obligatory Spending Spree?

Robert Folsom — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 05:30:00 ET

Oh, wait -- that's right, the person doing the giving is you. Sorry about that. I'm giving too. I feel your pain. On the long-shot chance you haven't heard about how deeply the government has gotten into the bailout business, $7.4 trillion is the answer to the question, "How deeply?"

The Almighty Dollar: How High Will The Greenback Fly?

Nico Isaac — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 05:15:00 ET

According to the mainstream experts, currency markets move in sync with the overall economy and stock market: bullish news begets a stronger dollar and bearish events, a weaker one. If so, then how do they explain the dollar's recent rally to a two-year high?

What Were You Reading at Dow 14,000?

Editorial Staff — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 05:30:00 ET

Today, six years after its launch, Robert Prechter's New York Times and Amazon best-selling book, Conquer the Crash, reads like a script. Bob says, "We're about a third of the way through CTC. There are two-thirds left. There is still time for people to get ready, but not much." Here are some highlights of the story Bob foretold in Conquer the Crash.

The Next Big Move In Crude, Copper, and Commodities Is…

Nico Isaac — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 04:45:00 ET

As the lines on your computer screen continually flash red across the entire scope of the commodity markets, some of you are probably thinking: "What in holy heck happened to the 'safe-haven' premium of this sector?" It's a fair question. Unfortunately, the mainstream pundits don't have a good answer.

"No One Could Have Predicted It" vs. Facts

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 04:45:00 ET

It's common these days to hear people say that, "No one could have predicted the crisis and stock market declines." But here is a chart of Germany's DAX stock index (Europe's equivalent of the DJIA) from January 2007 to the present. Below it are the corresponding "Bottom Line" summary forecasts from Elliott Wave International's monthly European Financial Forecast publication. Take a look...

Look Ahead to What the Bear Market Portends

Susan C. Walker — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 04:30:00 ET

It's been a wonder to see how quickly the psychology of people has changed from one of free-wheeling spending to worrying about paying the bills. What's interesting to us here at Elliott Wave International is that we've been anticipating and chronicling these sorts of negative feelings ever since the market began its downtrend in 2000 (yes, 2000 – the ensuing market action was a bear-market rally).

What to Think About On This Day

Robert Folsom — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 06:15:00 ET

It’s not easy to stand apart from mass hysteria—to believe that most of what’s in the financial news is wrong or distorted, to believe that most "important financial people are either lying or deluded—without actually being insane."

Bank Bailout Implodes

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 06:00:00 ET

The assumption there is always the same: The government is in control of the financial markets, and as long as it pulls on the right levers, the market will obey. It's only when the government makes a mistake, that's when the "bad news" sends the market lower. But this perfectly logical assumption (and many others like it) shatters the moment you look at a chart and compare the dates of some of the bailouts – the "good news" – with what the market did afterwards...

Treasury Secretary Didn't Answer His Own Question: Why?

Robert Folsom — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 06:00:00 ET

If you get nothing by way of a real answer from the government, it's reasonable to conclude that the government doesn't have a real answer...

EURUSD: Up 200 Pips, Down 300…Where to Next?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 05:45:00 ET

What a day. The stock market took a blow on Wednesday (Nov. 19), yes – but look at currencies! The euro-dollar exchange rate, known to currency traders as the EURUSD, started the day quietly range-trading around $1.26, as it's done all this week. Then, at 8:50 AM, all hell broke loose.

Crude Oil Prices: About To Cross A Line

Nico Isaac — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 04:15:00 ET

Fact: When crude oil prices were rocketing to never-before-seen heights back in July 2008, the mainstream pundits saw no end to the red-hot winning streak in black gold. Find out how our analysts saw the oil market cross the "line in the sand" from bull-to-bear beforehand...

How To Trade In THIS Fast-Moving Bear Market

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 04:00:00 ET

Novice traders (and investors) usually think that an accurate forecast is all they need to succeed in the markets. You read one, you open a trade, and then you close it. Buy low, sell high, wham-bam – you're rich. That happens only if you're really, really lucky. But let's consider a certain (very probable) trading scenario...

Which Enterprise Is Poised For Explosive Growth?

Robert Folsom — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 05:45:00 ET

If this was a publicly-traded enterprise would be the time to take a bet-the-mortgage long position...

GOLD: Not the "Safe Haven" You Think It Is

Nico Isaac — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 04:30:00 ET

According to mainstream economic wisdom, gold prices rise during economic downturns. By this logic, precious metals are set to become the most successful "recession/deflation" hedge in history. Or -- is it? The latest Elliott Wave Theorist has the answer no one else does...

U.S. Dollar vs. World: Why So Strong?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 04:30:00 ET

Conventional assumptions about market drivers don't work – despite what you hear on the six-o'clock news. In fact, if there is one central point in the Elliott wave-based view of the financial markets (and the society at large), it is precisely this: Events outside the markets have NO trend-forming influence. Don't believe us? Explain this, then...

Here's One Good Thing About Deflation

Susan C. Walker — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 05:45:00 ET

Talk about deflationary spirals on NPR? Get the low-down from the forecaster who first wrote about a deflationary crash.

Economists Agree: "Relief" and "Stimulus" Are "Succeeding"

Robert Folsom — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 05:30:00 ET

At what point is it fair to say, "Aren't you just doing more of the same stuff that obviously hasn't been working?" When is it fair to observe that, "To do the same thing over and over and expect a different result means you're insane?"

What's Next For Commodities?

Nico Isaac — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 02:45:00 ET

Is the bear market in commodities over, or has it just begun?” Futures Junctures editor Jeffrey Kennedy reveals where the strongest case lies – with bulls or bears – with 7 pages and 7 eye-opening charts of every market, from silver to soybeans, inside the brand-new November Monthly Futures Junctures.

Down 309 Points, Up 552 Points…Fast Enough For Ya?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 05:30:00 ET

Not that we haven't seen markets like these before. Since at least September, volatility in the stock market has been off the charts (no pun intended.) Still, what we witnessed today (Nov. 13) was staggering even if you didn't have an open position. (God help you if you did.)

A Few Days In The Life Of A Commodity Trader

Nico Isaac — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 04:45:00 ET

Over the last four days, I put myself in the (hypothetical) shoes of an average commodity trader schooled in the thought of mainstream economic wisdom. The market I choose is Orange Juice. Find out how the experiment unfolds today...

The "Stupid Season" Meets the Stock Market

Robert Folsom — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 04:30:00 ET

It would be easy enough to shred this analysis with a few facts -- such as CNN's exit polling, which showed that by income, voters earning $200,000 and above went for Obama, 52% to 46%...

Prechter's November Theorist: The ONLY Bull Market Still Standing

Robert Folsom — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 05:30:00 ET

There ain't no fees in this bull market, either. You don't have to do nuthin'. Ain't no risk at all. None of them "transaction costs." What? Yea, I'm bein' serious... Real serious.

The Carry Trade Unwinds: If You Knew Now What We Saw YEN

Nico Isaac — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 04:00:00 ET

Right now, the Japanese Yen is nearing a 13-year high against the U.S. Dollar and headlines abound of the great "unwinding" of the Yen Carry Trade. If you think the Bank of Japan is behind the yen's rally, think again...

Fill in the Blanks: An Important Lesson from Robert Prechter

Editorial Staff — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 01:30:00 ET

The following is a short lesson in socionomics directly excerpted from Robert Prechter's just-published November 2008 Elliott Wave Theorist.

Following Prechter: What "Non-Linear" Really Means

Robert Folsom — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 05:45:00 ET

If you thought the subprime debacle was a major example of risky human behavior, keep reading. Astronomers "may have accidentally nudged the universe closer to its death by observing dark energy..."

Hanging by a Single Horsehair

Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 03:30:00 ET

Fear and greed. The human predilection for cyclic, emotional progression and the basis of the Elliott Wave Principle. We are up to our necks in the fear side of the cycle, and for plenty of good reasons. The Sword of Damocles was only hanging by a single horsehair. Just how much weight can that horsehair support?

Crude Plunges Below $60: When Will Oil's Freefall End?

Nico Isaac — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 12:15:00 ET

On Tuesday, November 11, crude oil plunged 5%-plus to its lowest level in 20 months. Below $60 per barrel is a far cry from the $300 oil forecasts delivered by the mainstream experts this summer. See how one "brave analyst" called the end of crude's uptrend before the powerful slide began.

Coffee Prices & Starbucks: Any Connection?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 07:45:00 ET

Jeffrey, let's talk about coffee. Like prices of most soft commodities, coffee has been trending down this year – but what's interesting, have you noticed that the price of Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) has also been sliding? On the first trading day of this year, one share sold for about $18; in October, it fell to about $9. Do you think there is a connection here? -- Jeffrey Kennedy: Interesting observation. Well, yes and no...

Are Stocks Really A Bargain?

Nico Isaac — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 05:00:00 ET

Now that the U.S. stock market has endured its most devastating October in recent memory -- with the Dow Jones Industrial Average more than 40% below its all-time October 2007 peak -- one question rises above the rest: Are stocks at bargain-basement levels? Find out today...

Yes, OF COURSE This Is the Way to Run A Bailout

Robert Folsom — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 05:00:00 ET

Like an absolute monarch, government alone elects to disclose what it does -- it can also refuse to disclose anything, with impunity. This kind of power the Robber Barons of the 19th century imagined only in their wildest dreams...

EURUSD: Where Have We Seen This Picture Before?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 06:15:00 ET

You may remember the Free Update article "Euro Vs. Dollar: $1.30 and Counting…Down?" that we published on elliottwave.com October 21. In it, we referenced a forecast by Elliott Wave International's Currency Specialty Service, which the day earlier – on October 20, before the EURUSD had slid to that 1½-year low – made a very bullish forecast for the dollar. And here is why I bring it up...

Won't SOMEBODY Please "Take This Model and Shove It"?

Robert Folsom — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 05:15:00 ET

"Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you're being had."

Tell Me Again Why the Wave Principle Works

Susan C. Walker — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 04:00:00 ET

When the old methods of listening to your stock broker or reading your investment bank's analysis don't help when everything seems to be going to hell in a hand basket, what are you going to turn to?

If Elections Do NOT Drive Trends, What DOES?

Robert Folsom — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 05:30:00 ET

Once you know the direction of the dominant trend, "countertrend" moves then become the major challenge. These are more near term. We've said the dominant trend is downward for virtually the entire year it's been unfolding -- and that's why, after the close on Friday (Oct. 31, 2008) The Short Term Update said last week's stock market rally would not last...

Global Ocean Freight: Another Measure of the Downturn

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 05:00:00 ET

Shipping rates have been falling around the globe. Take a look at this chart of COSCO, China's major ocean freight company, that the editor Chris Carolan showed his Asian-Pacific Short Term Update subscribers in the November 4 issue...

Have Cocoa Prices Finally Hit Bottom?

Nico Isaac — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 04:00:00 ET

On November 6, cocoa prices were about as "upbeat" as the McCain-for-President camp -- as the sweet market slid to an 11-month low. Little known fact: Cocoa's downtrend is in direct CONTRAST to what the mainstream experts had called for...

Before Obama: How Bush Became "The Worst President Ever"

Nico Isaac — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 07:45:00 ET

In the wake of Democratic senator Barack Obama's historic rise to the ranks of United States President, it's difficult not to acknowledge his predecessor George W. Bush's precipitous fall from that very position...

Commodities: October Was "The Worst." What About November?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 06:30:00 ET

On October 31, Bloomberg.com reported that, "Commodities had the biggest monthly drop since at least 1956..." last month. The CRB index, which includes 19 commodities, fell 23% in October, with "Crude oil…set for a record monthly drop, copper its biggest retreat in two decades and gold its worst performance in 25 years." Does it get better from here? For some answers, we turn to Jeffrey Kennedy, editor of Elliott Wave International's Futures Junctures Service.

Is Obama Able to Make Stocks Literally Fall One Day and Rise the Next?

Robert Folsom — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 05:45:00 ET

Am I supposed to blame the stock market decline on Obama? I will if I have to, if someone will simply explain why it's his fault today when yesterday he got credit for the big "Election Day Rally."

Higher Fed-ucation: Will Rate Cuts Rescue The U.S. Economy?

Nico Isaac — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 10:15:00 ET

One of the top-selling Halloween costumes this year was a latex mask of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's bearded likeness. Seems rather fitting, considering -- The economy-saving capabilities of the Federal Reserve are an illusory façade. For some, such a statement runs a close second to blasphemy. I say, let the facts, NOT blind faith, speak.

(Video) EURUSD: Fear in the Markets? Watch for a Trend Change

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 06:00:00 ET

Market environment – that is, news and views surrounding a market – can help you quite a bit when you're trying to determine the trend. At tops, everyone is super-bullish; at bottoms, they are full of fear. In both cases, that's the time to watch for trend reversals. To understand this concept better, watch this free 6-minute video by Jim Martens, EWI's Senor Currency Strategist.

Prepare to Be Robbed – Part II

Robert Folsom — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 05:30:00 ET

Imagine that it's Wednesday, Nov. 5, the day after the U.S. presidential election. We're back in front of the nice home in the nice neighborhood. The same two men in dark suits knock on the same nice front door...

(VIDEO) What Taiwan's Bear Market Means for Asian-Pacific Stocks

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 04:45:00 ET

If you've been wondering how long the painful declines in Asian-Pacific stocks may continue, watch this free 4-minute video by the editor of EWI's monthly Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast, Mark Galasiewski, where he gives some clues using Taiwan's TAIEX stock index as an example.

European Stocks: Worst News Comes at a Bottom?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 04:00:00 ET

You may know that the Elliott Wave Principle is a contrarian investment method. Based on years of observing market behavior, we at EWI know that while the best news typically comes near market tops, the worst news appears – you guessed it, near bottoms...

Vote for the Candidate You Like the Least

Susan C. Walker — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 04:00:00 ET

The single best predictor of presidential popularity is the trend of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The precision with which presidential popularity has tracked the Dow and its rate of change is remarkable. It usually also indicates whether an incumbent will win re-election.

What If All Those Indicators Were That Extreme?

Robert Folsom — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 02:30:00 ET

It's never as simple as doing some math that amounts an economy that will do "catastrophic damage" -- but...

Promotor Fidei and Stultus Maximus

Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 06:30:00 ET

We are facing an "unprecedented financial crisis," and the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury are undertaking similarly "unprecedented actions" to mitigate the contraction of credit and damage to the U.S. economy. But is this really unprecedented? On scale – yes, but not in scope. Have you forgotten the Panic of 1819?

A Near-Term Opportunity In Sugar Is Here

Nico Isaac — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 05:15:00 ET

The what: On Thursday October 30, sugar kissed its month-long losing streak goodbye: Prices rocketed to their loftiest level in three weeks. The why: Well, according to the mainstream experts, the main "maaster" of sugar's price trend is… crude oil. Find out the full story....

Don’t Read This Story Until After the Rally Ends

Gary Grimes — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 11:15:00 ET

If you DO wait to read this story until the near-term rally has ended, then the facts below won't be "evidence" – they will be history.

The Update On YOUR Portfolio You Won't Find Elsewhere

Robert Folsom — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 05:45:00 ET

It's the portfolio that includes Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. And AIG, too. Then there's the banks you hold: big banks, small banks, bank stocks and more. Your portfolio has also recently been waist-deep in the commercial paper market -- lending to the likes of IBM, Chrysler, GE, American Express and Harley Davidson...

EURUSD: A HUGE Rally You Could Have Known About

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 10:45:00 ET

On Tuesday, October 28, the euro-dollar exchange rate, known to currency traders as the EURUSD, rallied over 400 points (or pips). In a single day, the huge rally vaporized 4 full cents of the U.S. dollar's recent gains against the European currency. Surprisingly, on Tuesday afternoon the mainstream financial media didn't have much to say about the rally...

Lowest Confidence, 2nd Highest Stock Gain: What Gives?

Robert Folsom — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 05:00:00 ET

The trendlines represented in these charts may not correspond perfectly, but if you look at them and conclude that confidence does not correlate with consumption, then I humbly suggest a trip to the optometrist...

Why On Earth Did The U.S. Dollar Get So Strong?

Nico Isaac — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 05:00:00 ET

Over the past few months, Wall Street's favorite watering holes have served up a deadly "stocktail" -- the Un-Surely Temple. Includes: a splash of fear, a dash of uncertainty, and a steady flow of extreme volatility. For those who partake, the hangover only gets worse.

Buy Stock Now? Check This Chart First

Editorial Staff — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 09:30:00 ET

Have investors panicked and capitulated yet? Not according to this chart based on volume data since January 2008.

Commodity Futures: Quick Lesson in Chart Analysis

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 06:30:00 ET

Diagonal Triangles typically form in a fifth wave position of an impulse. The Elliott Wave Principle* book says they appear when the market has gone "too far, too fast." The key thing to remember about them is that they are ending patterns. Because they signal the end of the larger trend, they often ignite volatile moves that quickly retrace the entire preceding wave pattern. This is the Diagonal Triangle I see forming in Soybean Meal right now, on a 45-minute chart...

Do Politicians Move the Markets?

Robert Folsom — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 05:15:00 ET

If you need proof that politicians will say anything to get elected, simply consider the sort of stuff they say when they KNOW they can't lose. In one of his three successful runs for governor in Louisiana, Edwin Edwards was so far ahead in the polls that he served up this gem on the day before the vote:

Median Home Prices: $30,300 LOWER

Robert Folsom — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 05:45:00 ET

Not to make light of real "distress," it seems to me that apart from super-wealthy homeowners, any homeowner who needs to sell would find this a distressing environment. In 2006 the median sale price of existing U.S. homes was $221,900, or $30,300 higher than today -- so if your home price was anywhere close to that 2006 median (as mine was), that's how much poorer we are.

3 Things You Could Have Known 1 Year Ago

Susan C. Walker — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 04:45:00 ET

It's a sign of hard-fought wisdom when you hear yourself say, "If only I knew then what I know now." In fact, many of us are saying to ourselves right now, "If only I knew a few months ago that the stock market would turn so bearish…"

(Update) Will GOLD Provide Shelter From The Storm?

Nico Isaac — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 04:15:00 ET

If ever there was a time for the “Safe-Haven” lure of precious metals to surface -- now, yesterday, even seven months ago when the Bear Stearns’ bailout launched the historic reshaping of Wall Street -- would have been it. Yet -- gold prices have officially entered bear market territory right alongside equities.

Markets Dive. What Do You Do NOW?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 03:30:00 ET

I must be honest: Limit-down trading in the DJIA and S&P futures on Friday morning (October 24) scared me. Yes, I work for Elliott Wave International. Yes, I know that our recent forecasts have been calling for another drop in stocks. But it's one thing to know about a strong probability of a crash. It's quite another to wake up one fine morning and find it staring you in the face.

(Update) Why Oil Prices Change – Part III

Robert Folsom — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 05:30:00 ET

For the most part, my research time proved an exercise in myth busting – which is to say, I realized that I needed to explain what does not change oil prices before I could explain what does....

Three Commodity Markets: One Pattern

Nico Isaac — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 05:00:00 ET

Passengers on board the mainstream "fundamental" train en route to COTTON have been severely derailed. To wit: On October 16, cotton prices wilted to a two-year low, DESPITE a barrage of bullish factors. Get the whole story today.

Traders Go Long and Short…Buyers Just Buy

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 04:15:00 ET

Hedge funds are "supposed to make money in bull and bear market." That's a very important point, because over the past 5 years, many funds have NOT been acting as hedge funds. Instead, just like "day-traders" in the late 1990s, they've not been trading, they've just been buying. Here's how Bob Prechter, EWI's founder and CEO, put it in his May 2008 Elliott Wave Theorist (excerpt)...

Why Isn't the Market 22% HIGHER Since the Second of September?

Robert Folsom — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 05:30:00 ET

What's the point of all this? Simply put, nearly one in three trading days in the date range above saw a large move higher, with accompanying "good news" that supposedly drove up the stock market...

How Low Will The Stock Market Go?

Nico Isaac — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 10:00:00 ET

"Who will be the next President of the United States?" may be the top question on the minds of Americans today, but right behind it is this one: Is the stock market's October 10 low the FINAL bottom?

Euro Vs. Dollar: $1.30 and Counting…Down?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 09:00:00 ET

Why is the dollar gaining? Apparently, hedge funds were "returning to cash in anticipation of massive investor withdrawals." Plus, said analysts, Ben Bernanke's new proposal for another U.S. economic stimulus package added optimism to the dollar's future. Every time I read reports like these, I think of how well they explain the market action – and yet how utterly useless they are for a forex trader. Let me ask you a question...

Their Forecast Wasn't Wrong -- Reality Was

Robert Folsom — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 05:15:00 ET

An unending irony is that theoretical work spawns formulas that become the basis of financial models, in which fund managers, bank CEOs and regulators assume place an extraordinary measure of faith. How much faith, you ask? Well, "up to a 99% probability that banks would not lose more than a certain amount of money." That's what I read last week in a Wall Street Journal column about "value at risk," or VaR...

Coffee, Soybeans: Two Lessons With a Message

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 09:30:00 ET

Once again, I sit down to talk with Jeffrey Kennedy, Elliott Wave International's Senior Commodity Analyst and editor of our Futures Junctures Service. -- Jeffrey, the ongoing credit contraction – a.k.a. liquidity crisis – has not spared commodities. Just glancing at the long-term charts you show in the Wave Watch section of your October Monthly Futures Junctures, I see that prices of markets like coffee, corn, wheat or soybeans that were flying high just months ago, are down hard – and I mean, hard! -- Jeffrey Kennedy: Yes, while some commodities have suffered less, corn prices, for example, got cut in half since June...

I Hate To Disagree With a Billionaire, But...

Robert Folsom — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 05:15:00 ET

We've heard and read a lot about what the political leaders of the major industrial nations are doing to stop the bleeding in stocks, unfreeze the credit markets, calm down investors, prop up the banking system, and ward off an economic depression. How a bunch of guys in suits will get all those metaphors done at once I don't know. But they're trying....

How Far the Mighty Have Fallen in Vicious Cycle of De-leveraging

Susan C. Walker — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 06:00:00 ET

Billions of dollars poured into hedge funds over the past five years, as wealthy investors looked for ways to increase the value of their investments. And their hedge fund managers obliged, using bucket-loads of leverage along with strategies that included short-selling, arbitrage, program trading and investing in derivatives. Now, the good times are coming to an end.

4 Stories That Tell You Most of What You Need To Know

Robert Folsom — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 04:00:00 ET

Not that you should lose any sleep over this, at least not in the next few nights: it's gonna take a while to unwind the credit default swap market, given the tens of trillions of dollars in notional value in represents....

Commodities: TREATS of Opportunity Galore

Nico Isaac — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 03:00:00 ET

Halloween has arrived early! O.K. Not really. But for those who knock on the door of the brand-new October Monthly Futures Junctures (published October 17), the analysis of the commodity markets will be a treat indeed. Sugar, Coffee, Cotton, Corn, and Live Cattle -- dig in.

Sugar’s “Crude” Logic

Nico Isaac — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 04:30:00 ET

True or False -- Crude oil prices move in step with sugar prices. Answer: According to the mainstream financial experts, that would be tried and T-R-U-E. Whether the reality-based facts agree, however, might surprise you.

(Update) Crude Oil: Gentlemen, Stop Your Engines

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 03:00:00 ET

After hitting an all-time high of $147 a barrel in July, oil fell as low as $77.09 (on October 10) – an almost 50% decline. And now, "Goldman Sachs, among those predicting $200 a barrel oil, cut its year-end forecast of oil to $70…" (AP) How could have oil experts gotten it so wrong?

Euro Vs. Dollar (Video): What Market Environment Means For Trend

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 06:15:00 ET

The euro-dollar exchange is hovering around $1.35, as if seeking direction. It will find it sooner or later. In the meantime, we can use this opportunity to learn how to take advantage of the trend when it resumes. Watch this free video, for example.

9 Percent Decline?... Yeah, But Wait Till You See THIS

Robert Folsom — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 05:30:00 ET

Yes, this shows the same index, nearly one year ago -- October 24, 2007, to be precise. Yes, the arrow points to the same place on the chart. And, yes, it would have been one heck of a forecast at the time

Why Are Gold Prices Falling? Hint: It’s NOT Because Of the Dollar

Nico Isaac — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 04:00:00 ET

Unless you're about 80 years old, the United States economy is undergoing the worst downturn in living memory. Yet -- from its March 17 record peak, GOLD prices have plummeted more than 20%. Two words: What "Safe Haven"?

A Chart That "Quantifies" The Credit Crisis

Robert Folsom — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 06:45:00 ET

The Federal Reserve's "Discount Rate Spread," for example, stayed below 40 basis points during the years 2003-2006. In 2007, it rose to a high of some 150 basis points. In the past week the spread has eclipsed 450 basis points -- again, no one has seen anything like this....

Has the Stock Market Been Nationalized?

Robert Folsom — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 05:30:00 ET

Yes, I know that Paulson spoke only about buying "financial" shares. But that's what the SEC said a month ago when it made short-selling illegal -- it began with a list of 799 financial stocks that investors could not short. Then the SEC added nearly 200 non-financials, including General Motors and CVS.

U.S. Stocks: The “Unimaginable” Has Happened. Now What?

Nico Isaac — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 04:45:00 ET

What do all of the following items have in common?

A needle in a haystack
A diamond in the rough
A confident investor in the U.S. stock market

Answer: They’re all next to impossible to find.

U.S. Economy: Back on Track? What Track?

Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 11:45:00 ET

What ails Wall Street is the poison flowing from the over-leveraged Main Street – and not the other way around, as many would suggest. Cheap money, like a phoenix wrought from the ashes of the dot.com bubble, is at the heart of this crisis. There would be no "toxic Wall Street assets" if Main Street were making their payments.

Government "Interventions" - A.K.A. Redefining Insanity

Robert Folsom — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 06:00:00 ET

This is such a lunatic idea that I hardly know what to say about it. You may not want to buy stocks right now, I know I don't. But, if the Fed buys stocks, then whatever you and I and anybody else "wants" ceases to matter. All Americans own equities. Period. Will they have to notify all of the 110 million U.S. households about the date and location of shareholder meetings?

Euro Vs. Dollar: In a Freefall

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 04:00:00 ET

You can't look at this week's action in the U.S. dollar without having your jaw drop. We've already commented on the greenback's stunning strength recently despite several major "fundamental" factors that should have sent it crashing. Here's just a quick list:

Admit It: People Herd

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 07:30:00 ET

On a day when the DJIA fell another 678 points to close below 8,600, it seems appropriate to talk about the herding impulse in humans. We at EWI observed decades ago that the financial markets are anything by rational. Now the mainstream media is also picking up on this fact. So why has the stock market "become a case study in the psychology of crowds"? Here's an eye-opening answer.

Dow Below 9000: The Con(fidence) Game is Up

Susan C. Walker — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 05:30:00 ET

People have lost confidence, and the markets reflect their concern. Without confidence, the financial house of cards falls down. This is exactly what Bob Prechter writes in his best-selling business book, Conquer the Crash.

Cotton: Futures Forerunner

Nico Isaac — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 03:30:00 ET

The votes are in. The ballots are tallied. And the official frontrunner has been declared. (And no, we’re not talking about the 2008 Presidential Election) We’re talking about the current race to determine which market -- out of all the major commodity candidates out there -- is the greatest contender for near-term opportunity. And the winner is: Cotton

European Stocks: The Dance Of The Fearful

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 06:00:00 ET

Bear markets can destroy very quickly what took years to build. They are fast because they are driven by fear, and fear is stronger than greed, the bull market catalyst. This is what Tom Denham, Elliott Wave International Senior European Equity Analyst, says about this cycle in the opening paragraph of his current, October European Financial Forecast...

Oil Prices Plunge: What “Safe-Haven”?

Nico Isaac — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 04:00:00 ET

According to mainstream financial wisdom, when the plane of the U.S. economy runs out of fuel and starts hurtling toward the earth’s surface, one of the few markets said to provide a parachute of safety is … Oil. Problem is, over the last four months, said parachute has failed to open.

The $700 Billion Dollar Question

Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 11:45:00 ET

Global deflation means global recession. Still, come to think of it, as bad as it may get in the U.S., our financial, service and industrial diversifications would probably make the U.S. dollar and equities a good bet, on a relative strength basis.

Russian Stocks: From Boom To Bust

Nico Isaac — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 06:00:00 ET

In the last month, Russia (a.k.a. “the Lungs of Europe”) has come down with an acute case of financial pneumonia. Every effort to clear the airways -- from NINE shut downs of the Russian Trading System Index (RTSI) to $150 billion in cash infusions -- has been for not. Moscow’s main bourse continues to choke, culminating in the code blue event of “Black Monday” (October 6)...

U.S. Dollar: The REAL Bear Market Maverick

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 06:00:00 ET

Despite all "fundamental" odds, since mid-July, the U.S. dollar has been gaining strength. The euro vs. dollar exchange rate, known in forex trading world as the EURUSD, has fallen from near $1.60 mid-summer to below $1.35 on October 6. This chart illustrates this incredible 25-cent gain by the greenback...

Have You Reached the "Point of Recognition"?

Susan C. Walker — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 05:30:00 ET

With the Dow dropping more than 800 points over two days, people are reaching the "point of recognition" when they can see that the stock market is moving strongly in one direction.

Do Bailouts Work? Wait Till You See This Chart

Nico Isaac — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 04:45:00 ET

In the last month, the finanical powers-that-be have pulled the trigger on a "bailout bazooka" AND dropped the ultimate bailout A-bomb. YET -- the big, bad grizzly goes unscathed, taking the financial world by storm like some indestructible Bearzilla, squashing every major monument to wealth in its wake. The latest casualty: the Dow Jones Industrial Average...

Where Is a Good Investment Banker When You Need One?

Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 03:15:00 ET

The Wachovia board gave Citibank the shaft, and now Citibank is crying tortuous interference. Good luck with that one. With all that has gone on the past several weeks, is there really a judge out there who will force Wachovia to re-enter a buyout that leaves taxpayers vulnerable to potentially billions in losses and leaves bondholders out in the cold? More...

Presidential Hopefuls: A Dark Horse Ticket

Nico Isaac — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 06:15:00 ET

While watching the October 2 Vice Presidential debate, I couldn’t help notice the huge amount of time the candidates spent playing the game, “MY Guy Predicted The Financial Turmoil First.” If anticipating the current U.S. economic crisis BEFORE it unfolded is qualification enough to run for Leader of the Free World, then I have a dark horse ticket to fill: Bob Prechter for President.

A Trend That's Bigger Than Every News Story You Can Name

Robert Folsom — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 05:45:00 ET

It doesn't wash. News can't reverse the dominant trend, and every news story you can name has been smaller than this trend for the past 18 months....

Struggling To Stay Alive in the Credit Default Swamp

Susan C. Walker — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 04:30:00 ET

The most famous line delivered by Pogo was, "We have met the enemy, and he is us." That sentiment perfectly captures what the muck-a-mucks on Wall Street should be thinking as they look around the financial landscape and realize that the credit default swaps they purchased as insurance against their risky securities bets have all blown up.

Commodity Spotlight: How Low Will COCOA Go?

Nico Isaac — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 10:45:00 ET

n general, using “fundamentals” to keep the course of the financial markets is a lot like using a compass to navigate on the moon: The needle rarely points in the right direction. Case in point: the COCOA market circa June 2008.

Want to Know How Big the Liquidity Problem Really Is? Here's A Comparison

Robert Folsom — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 05:45:00 ET

During the past two weeks the liquidity crisis has grown worse literally by the day. And the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on Sept. 15 did indeed trigger this acute phase of the debacle. Perhaps this simple comparison can show the scale of the problem....

Historic Bailout Vote: House, Senate Vote On Bailout Plan To 'Rescue' Financial Markets – Can It?

Gary Grimes — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 04:00:00 ET

News reports say the Senate is preparing to vote on a revised plan Wednesday evening, but the question remains: Will this bailout plan – or “rescue” effort, if you prefer the government's term for it – save the financial markets?

"What We Do" -- Longest Page on the Fed's Web Site?

Robert Folsom — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 06:00:00 ET

I will agree that a word like "Facility" sounds so much more, well, fiduciary... even if a descriptive phrase like "Come and get it!" is arguably more precise. Thing is, every time the Fed makes the credit window bigger the list of banks still around to use it gets smaller.

Oil Prices Say “Watch Out”

Nico Isaac — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 04:15:00 ET

If ever there was a time for the cause-and-effect logic of conventional economic wisdom to play out in the real world, September 2008 was it. And Crude Oil was the market.

The Bailouts Can’t Buy Happiness

Nico Isaac — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 05:30:00 ET

At this point, the federal government should rename their plan for fixing the U.S. economic crisis to -- the “Weekend At Bernie’s” Bailout. Under this system, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke pretends the leading financial giants are still alive by propping them up with a multi-TRILLION-dollar back brace.

A Reckoning On An Epic Scale

Robert Folsom — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 05:15:00 ET

"Reckon" is an Old English (OE) word, which means it's been around too long to know when its usage began. The Oxford English Dictionary includes several meanings for "reckon," from the mundane ("to count or put straight") to the unnerving ("account for one's life to God after death")....

Buy This Bailout or We'll Shoot This Bank

Robert Folsom — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 05:30:00 ET

That magazine cover came to mind as I thought about how the Congressional bailout talks imploded on Thursday night, and how the announcement of Washington Mutual Bank's failure came on Friday morning. My inner cynic wondered whether the seizure of WaMu's assets was a "we're serious" message to the Congress from the Treasury and Fed -- as in, "Buy Bailout or We'll Shoot Another Bank"...

Bailing Out Speculators Just Like a Bad Liver Transplant

Editorial Staff — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 04:45:00 ET

Politicians are converting bales of privately issued bad credit into what the government calls money. As we know, values do not come from nothing. So where does the value handed over to all these broke creditors come from?

An Update on the $138 Billion -- and the Inferences

Robert Folsom — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 05:45:00 ET

Lehman's bankruptcy remains very much relevant to the proposed $700 billion bailout plan now under debate in Congress. In his testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on Sept. 24, Fed Chairman Bernanke said...

$138 Billion -- Just Inferences, We Hope

Robert Folsom — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 07:30:00 ET

I've read several details regarding Lehman's demise and learned some interesting facts. The bankruptcy filing was "pre-dawn" on the 15th, according to Bloomberg. The filing document is available in pdf form on the internet: it names Lehman's largest unsecured creditors, and the dollar amounts of their claims....

Commodity Special: Sweet Opportunity In Sugar

Nico Isaac — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 06:00:00 ET

True or False -- Crude oil prices move in step with sugar prices. Reason being, the higher the cost of oil, and the greater the demand for alternative fuels such as cane-based ethanol. Today's story has the answer that might surprise you.

Will Gold Provide Shelter From The Storm?

Nico Isaac — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 05:00:00 ET

As the stock market continues its violent 400-point swings back and forth, one question floods the minds of investors across the country: Where is a secure place to park my money, besides the floor boards? And, like a broken record, the conventional wisdom repeats, “Gold, gold, gold…” Are they right?

Black Swans, Rogue Waves, and Wall Street

Robert Folsom — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 04:45:00 ET

Statistical models are linear by nature, based on averages and probabilities. Some can account for the outliers, but will assign them a probability of appearing only once in a thousand years. Your reliance on these assumptions can be measured by the shock you feel over the demise of Wall Street in the space of one week....

The Brilliance Of The U.S. Government Bailout

Euan Wilson — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 01:30:00 ET

From the time the founders drafted the Constitution, Presidents and the Congress have often been in a tug-of-war over the scope of executive power. But this time, it's different. The expansion of executive power is not because of national security, war, or political scandal. This time, the president wants power without precedent because the debt-based, monopoly-currency financial system has failed.

I Wish The Answers Were Here

Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 10:00:00 ET

Whether in my job as Elliott Wave International’s Senior Bonds Analyst or in these essays, I enjoy writing with a slightly cynical, tongue-in-cheek style. I believe that most of the time, humor is the best thing to get you out of a bad situation. However, there are certain times when a more sober assessment is needed. Deflation is here and everybody knows it – even those who don’t yet call it by its name. Here's what it means for all of us...

Prepare to Be Robbed -- It's For Your Own Good

Robert Folsom — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 05:15:00 ET

Picture a nice home in a nice neighborhood. Two men in dark suits walk up and knock on the nice front door:

Men: Hello, we're from the government. Not only are we here to help, we're also going to rob you for your own good...

Why Is The U.S. Dollar Falling?

Nico Isaac — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 04:30:00 ET

The U.S. dollar and the U.S. stock market are forever joined at the hip in a kind-of three-legged race to the financial finish -- or so the conventional mainstream wisdom would have you believe. Our archive of the lasting trend changes within each market over the past four years begs to differ...

Thank You for Your Support of Bailouts-R-Us!

Robert Folsom — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 05:30:00 ET

Let's see -- "weapon," "arsenal," "combat," "threatens." Sounds like the SEC is "committed" all right, but language like that makes me wonder if bureaucrats are up to the task. Perhaps the Department of Homeland Security should do the enforcement dirtywork, or for that matter a brigade of Marines. Killing all the short sellers is easier with executioners who won't point the business end of the weapon at their own feet....

Commodities: The Leaves Of Opportunity Rain Down

Nico Isaac — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 04:30:00 ET

The hint of autumn is in the air. The leaves of opportunity in the worlds leading commodity markets are falling fast. And, the brand-new September 2008 Monthly Futures Junctures is here to catch them one by one: Sugar, Coffee, Cocoa, Orange Juice, Corn, Live Cattle...

Why the Bailouts Ultimately Won't Work

Editorial Staff — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 04:00:00 ET

Government officials and newspaper editorials, even those from skeptical writers, have been unanimous in claiming that a bailout, no matter how unpleasant, was “necessary.” But this is nonsense. Find out why.

Elliott Wave Rules Rope In Feeder Cattle

Nico Isaac — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 01:15:00 ET

By the time you finish chasing after all the possible scenarios, the near-term opportunity will be long gone. Right now, in fact, the September 18 Daily Futures Junctures reveals exactly where the next big move in Feeder Cattle could be. ...

Most Transparent Markets, Part II

Robert Folsom — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 05:45:00 ET

Now that you know what the regulators were not doing, there's the question of what they were doing. Keeping in mind that regulators actually regulate participants in a given market, let me summarize:

Why Is Silver Falling? Hint: Look At Economy (Part II)

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 11:00:00 ET

Gold and silver are traditionally considered to be a hedge against bad economic times. Put another way, precious metals go up when the economy goes down – or so says the conventional wisdom. But, as it’s often the case with various bits of conventional economic wisdom, this one also begins to show cracks the moment you look at some historic charts...

Most Transparent Capital Markets in the World?

Robert Folsom — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 05:30:00 ET

No market that permitted such practices could be called "transparent." It's even less imaginable that in a transparent market, regulators and ratings agencies would endorse such practices. And that is why the unimaginable is on a rampage, dear reader.

Stock Market ‘Carnage’ Continues

Nico Isaac — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 05:00:00 ET

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down some 800 points over the past three days (Sept. 15-17). Monday alone was its sixth steepest drop EVER, at 504 points. How does the recent sell off in stocks fit into the big picture AND does that picture contain the etchings of a wee cub, or a mature adult?

Fannie Mae and the Infinity-or-Bust Principle

Peter Kendall — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 04:00:00 ET

The infinity-or-bust syndrome holds that in an unfolding bear market, it is theoretically possible for a formerly high flying stock (such as Fannie Mae) to plunge, sometimes by “80%, 90% and 98%,” an infinite number of times – allowing the shorts to have a field day over and over again.

U.S. Dollar vs. Euro: “Risk of a Sudden Revaluation”

Jim Martens - Senior Currency Strategist — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 04:30:00 ET

Have forex traders lost confidence in the idea that the U.S. was ahead of the rest of the world in regard to bad news – and now it’s leading the way back, away from the edge of recession? Or have they lost faith in the way the U.S. does business? And if it’s the latter, does it mean they have lost faith in the capitalist way of life? And what could that mean for the U.S. dollar? Here are some thoughts from Elliott Wave International’s Senior Currency Strategist

What Went Wrong on Wall Street? Try This for "Simple"

Robert Folsom — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 05:15:00 ET

You don't have to be a genius to explain (or to understand) the reasons that led to the subprime debacle and credit crisis. Here's what I mean: To blow up the financial world, follow these steps...

$1 Billion to Georgia

Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 12:30:00 ET

President Bush announced last week that the U.S. would send $1 billion in aid to Georgia, and I say, great – it’s about time we got some of our tax dollars back. As a resident of the great city of Atlanta in the “Peach state,” I have created a list of projects that would help us to distribute these funds fairly and effectively...

Oil Prices AND The “Ike Spike” That Never Was

Nico Isaac — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 04:45:00 ET

Whatever account of Ike’s toll is closer to the truth, the main point doesn’t change: Any market participant who took the storm rages/oil rise-warnings seriously, found themselves licking their wounds as no crude oil price spikes followed. That very same “wisdom” also triggered a barrage of bullish oil forecasts from the energy in-crowd, a national outbreak of panic at the gas pumps, and price gauging -- ALL based on fear and speculation rather than facts...

A Word to the People Who NEVER Get Bailed Out

Robert Folsom — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 04:15:00 ET

What about the people who NEVER get bailed out? Namely, the shareholders and taxpayers who ALWAYS get it right in the neck -- even as CEOs who created the subprime mess get multi-million dollar "severance" packages, and big overseas bondholders get the bailout benefits. Here's a chart that shows what shareholders "get."

Silver Elliott Forecast Says 'Watch Out!'

Nico Isaac — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 09:30:00 ET

News Flash: From their March 17 peaks, Gold has plunged 27% to a one-year low, while silver has lost nearly half its value in a violent selloff to two-year lows. While a bearish bullion forecast was entirely "alien" to the mainstream experts back in March, it was every bit familiar to Elliott Wave International's team of analysts...

U.S. Dollar: Not a “Safe Haven” Any More?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 12:00:00 ET

Sometimes, a market rallies or crashes seemingly for no good reason at all. In the stock market, the most vivid recent example of that occurred on September 04, when the DJIA went and lost 345 points. The decline stumped almost everyone, because there was nothing – nothing – in the news that day that could have reasonably explained it. In currencies, I would call the EURUSD’s rally that started on September 11 a good example of the same “mystery move.” Consider the facts...

Today is Not Like 1929! No, It's Worse

Editorial Staff — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 03:00:00 ET

Now, with the Dow in decline and the current problems with Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Lehman on the front pages, more people may want to know exactly what Bob Prechter has forecast for the U.S. economy.

Commodity Spotlight: Coffee & “The Most Powerful Wave Pattern Of All”

Nico Isaac — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 05:45:00 ET

On September 11, coffee prices plunged to their lowest level in three-plus weeks. And, while the mainstream experts blame a rising U.S. dollar for softs fall, you should know: There is NO consistent correlation between gains in the greenback and losses in coffee...

Fear-Based Trading

Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 08:30:00 ET

Corrective Elliott wave patterns – that is, waves 2 and 4 – often have overlapping, jittery internal wave subdivisions are notoriously difficult to count. Forecasting their termination points is just as hard. However, even during the toughest market corrections, the Elliott Wave Principle gives you a distinct advantage. Here's how...

Lehman Brothers: Beep, Beep, Beep, Beeeeee.....

Nico Isaac — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 07:15:00 ET

In hindsight, it may appear more-than-obvious that Lehman was next in the line of Wall Street firms going from “the good life” to life support. But what about before? The public was oblivious all the way up to the red-flashing LEH ticker tape...

Euro Vs. Dollar (Forex): What Goes Up Must Come Down

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 05:00:00 ET

Since mid-July, the U.S. dollar has gained almost 20 cents against the euro. From a currency trader's perspective, that's about 2000 points (or pips) in one direction – down – in less than two months. The best way to describe this action in the EURUSD is – "falling like a rock." What happens next?

How High Can The U.S. Dollar Fly?

Nico Isaac — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 03:45:00 ET

Back in mid-July, the U.S. dollar was plunging to an all-time low against the euro. And, according to the mainstream experts, so long as the slew of bearish news remained intact, the currency was set to kick the "buck"et. What really happened was just the opposite....

Electronic Trading: Risk of Computer Failure Is Real

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 07:30:00 ET

September 8, Bloomberg – "London Stock Exchange Group Plc, operator of the world's fourth-largest market, broke down on the day European equities posted their biggest gain in five months, hurting clients who trade an average $17.5 billion a day. Trading resumed at 4 p.m. after an earlier computer failure left clients unable to buy or sell shares for about seven hours... The LSE...said attempts to fix its biggest computer failure in more than eight years took 'longer than expected.'" Can a similar failure occur again? You bet – in fact, they have already...

Will A Bailout Save Fannie Mae?

Nico Isaac — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 05:15:00 ET

Forget faith. Forget unheard-of dollar amounts. Forget the Fed’s promise not to let the mortgage giants fail. The truth is: In forty years of economic history, there has been ONE single requirement for a financial bailout to pull off a meaningful recovery: A bull market in stocks. The full story awaits.

Banks Need Therapy, Too

Alan Hall — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 04:15:00 ET

...a recent Atlanta Journal Constitution headline: “Therapists helping builders cope during housing slump.” The article explained how “Every builder seems to know a colleague swamped in debt, and a few know friends in the business who have taken their lives.” A year ago, few imagined that smiling builders talking on cell phones in big trucks would soon be seeking emotional support on therapists’ couches.

Gold: NOT The “Safe-Haven” You Think It Is

Nico Isaac — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 02:30:00 ET

According to mainstream financial wisdom, when the plane of the U.S. economy runs out of fuel in mid-air and starts hurtling toward the earth’s surface, investors do have one parachute of safety: Precious Metals. Think again...

Corn Prices: Is The Grain Set To Gain?

Nico Isaac — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 07:45:00 ET

The number one flaw of mainstream financial analysis is its tendency to show-up late to a market’s price action. It’s a lot like jumping out from behind the couch and yelling “Surprise!” at a birthday party – hours after the guest of honor has already arrived. Even then, the “gifts” of wisdom they bring to the table are often inconsistent and even inaccurate. Take, for instance, these former news stories regarding Corn...

345-Point Decline: Are You "In Search of A Reason"?

Robert Folsom — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 05:15:00 ET

Markets NEVER need a news-related "reason" to trend up or down -- if anything, today's stock market trend anticipates the type of broader news story you'll be reading tomorrow. This truth is lost on the vast majority of reporters and the public, who, in turn, go "in search of a reason" AFTER "a market decline."

Real Estate (Video): What's Next for Australia, Japan, China, India and Others?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 05:00:00 ET

Real estate is the one financial market everyone cares about. Now that home prices are down as much as 25% in some parts of the U.S., overseas homeowners – in Europe, Asia and Australia – are starting to worry about what will happen to values of their homes. Watch this free video for some answers.

Oil And Stocks: The "Correlation" Breaks Down

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 05:00:00 ET

"Most pundits were talking mainly about oil this morning [Sept. 2], which was extremely volatile. They tried to explain the strongly higher stock market open by the fact that oil prices were down big. By the end of today’s session very few market observers talked about oil and stocks together. The reason: both ended today’s market session DOWN..."

How Do You Know If You Have the Right Wave Count?

Jeffrey Kennedy, Senior Commodities Analyst — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 03:30:00 ET

A common question from EWI subscribers is: "On an unlabeled price chart, how do you identify the start of the Wave pattern?"

That's a good question, and is exactly the kind that Senior Commodities Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy loves to answer. His passion is teaching, and every month Jeffrey's Monthly Futures Junctures presents a lesson in technical analysis via his "Trader's Classroom." This excerpt, edited for brevity, comes from an old favorite: "How Do You Know If You Have the Right Wave Count?"

Oil & Stocks: Mortal Enemies?

Nico Isaac — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 11:00:00 ET

Imagine reading all about Wall Street in comic book form. The superhero of the story would be the U.S. stock market. Who would be the bad guy? Well, if reporting by the financial press is any indication, the villainous Black Gold. The two characters stand at opposite extremes of light and dark, good and evil. If one is rising, the other must always be falling...

European Stocks: At First, They Said…

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 06:00:00 ET

At first, they said that the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis would not affect the rest of the world – because seriously, how can someone's default on their mortgage payments in Iowa or Kansas do that? And here we are – a year later, and hardly out of the woods.

Why a New U.S. President Can't Change the Bearish Trend

Editorial Staff — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 03:00:00 ET

When the overall social mood changes to negative, no one person – no matter how powerful – can change it. Here's an excerpt from the latest Elliott Wave Theorist that explains why.

Did You Ever Think A Financial Crisis Would Feel Like This?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 11:00:00 ET

Pictures and video footage I've seen from the Great Depression almost always shows unmistakable signs of a real economic tragedy: people lined up on the street, waiting for help; homeless sleeping on a park bench; families living in tents; and everywhere – misery, desolation and despair. Looking around now, I see none of those things. If anything, I see the opposite...

Grains: The Whole Truth And Nothing But

Nico Isaac — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 07:30:00 ET

According to the mainstream experts, corn, wheat, and soybeans are the Three Huskateers, with prices in each market abiding by the original motto: “All for one and one for all.” One look at our powerful close-up of prices in the three grain markets over the last two decades, AND the truth might surprise you...

U.S. Financial Crisis: NOT A "Shock" To Our System

Nico Isaac — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 05:45:00 ET

Think the U.S. economy has gone to the dogs? You may be more right than you thought. A Wednesday, August 27 L.A. Times article explains why consumer confidence is sinking to a 40-year low, via a science experiment involving -- well -- two obedient canines. Here’s the gist:

What Does A Contracting Triangle In Soybeans Mean For You?

Euan Wilson — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 05:00:00 ET

A lot can happen in a week, especially in the commodities markets.

That's why Senior Commodities Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy writes the Daily Futures Junctures Weekly Wrap-up each Friday. Jeffrey uses these updates to review and post forecast charts for every major commodity market. He also records a video update which allows him to talk about each one of his charts in depth.

By way of example, here's an excerpt of last Friday's update, with Jeffrey discussing what the week's action in Soybeans means for the future:

Video: How Do You Pick Best Stocks and Sectors?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 04:45:00 ET

The question “How do I pick the best stock?” is as old as the stock market itself. You’ve probably heard about a method or two, and you may already be using them – maybe even successfully. Watch this free 7-minute video and learn a new tip from an industry expert.

Crude Oil: A “Gut-wrenching, Volatile, Fear-laden” Move Ahead

Nico Isaac — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 04:30:00 ET

The energy in-crowd spends more time watching changes in climate patterns than Al Gore. Their main goal: Spot “bullish” storm activity in oil producing regions that could damage supply and therefore, spark a rise in prices. Problem is, hurricane activity means hooey to oil's overall trend...

When Will the Media Get It? Someone Did Foresee the Credit Crisis

Gary Grimes — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 12:30:00 ET

It’s no surprise homeowners felt invincible; they'd been told to feel that way every day. The mainstream media – the group who believes they're supposed to question authority for the good of John Q. Public – got caught with their pants down. Government agencies appeared equally inept – or at least unwilling to confront the problem. But there were a select few who not only knew, but were ready and waiting.

Currency Traders: Free Elliott Wave Forecasts, 36 Hrs Left

Jim Martens - Senior Currency Strategist — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 07:30:00 ET

Whenever I talk about how to use the Elliott Wave Principle in forex trading, I always spend the majority of the time talking about the price patterns R.N. Elliott provided us with over seventy years ago. Those patterns are the heart and soul of the Wave Principle. But more and more I'm asked prematurely about Fibonacci relationships. Here are some thoughts on that... (EWI's Currency Specialty Service FreeWeek continues through noon on August 27. Keep reading for details.)

Commodities Go Kerplunk: Why Are Prices Falling?

Nico Isaac — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 04:45:00 ET

It’s official: The five-year long Commodity boom has gone from white-hot to white-not. To wit: since the start of July 2008, the futures markets have seen more jaw-dropping free falls than the Beijing Olympics diving competition...

Mr. Hull's Giant

Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 06:45:00 ET

In the summer of 1868, Mr. George Hull of Binghamton, New York, decided to pull off a hoax. He had a gypsum block carved into the shape of a giant dead man, buried at a farm near Cardiff, New York -- and then later, he had it dug up. Thousands of people flocked to pay and see "Mr. Hull’s giant." And here we are, 140 years later...

How are Wave Analysis, Dow Theory and Fibonacci Related?

Editorial Staff — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 04:00:00 ET

To begin to understand the Elliott Wave Principle, it's a good idea to get to know how R. N. Elliott discovered it. Read Bob Prechter explaining how it all began.

Sweet Opportunity In Cocoa

Nico Isaac — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 05:15:00 ET

If financial markets are well-oiled machines that react mechanically to outside events, it stands to reason -- If you master the system, there’s no way to go wrong. In actuality, the story is quite different, as the recent action in COCOA makes plain...

The Best Time To Read Prechter’s Perspective Is Right NOW

Nico Isaac — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 03:15:00 ET

For those interested in seeing how the Wave Principle enabled Bob to anticipate the current wave of economic turmoil befalling the United States, Prechter’s Perspective outlines the following forecasts:

Scary Thought: A Bear Market That Lasts Forever?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 08:45:00 ET

By claiming that there is a "negative loop between the financial system and the broader economy," the International Monetary Fund is essentially saying that we will be stuck in this bear market forever – literally. Think about it...

Diagnosis: Soybeans

Euan Wilson — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 02:45:00 ET

If you have watched a few episodes of the hit TV series House, you know there is a specific formula for each episode. The gifted but fiercely independent doctor must find the answer to a medical mystery before the show's end — a total of 43 minutes. However, until that time, Dr. House and his team make any number of right and wrong moves, yet each one serves to reach the final, correct diagnosis.

An Elliott Wave technician's job works much the same way: not every Wave Count unfolds as expected. Yet even if you get off track, a mistaken forecast can still reveal the bigger story, as new facts flow in from the market.

Conquer the Crash Delivered Today's News in 2002

Alan Hall — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 05:30:00 ET

The truly remarkable part of the story is how early he saw them. Bob described the ways that many dominoes would fall before some of them were even set up. His earlier book, At the Crest of the Tidal Wave was published in 1995, while Conquer the Crash was in 2002. This was years before the gathering storm became obvious to “Dr. Doom,” (the New York Times’ name for economist Nouriel Roubini) who described parts of the bursting bubble in 2006.

Currency Traders: Get Elliott Wave Forex Forecasts Free

Editorial Staff — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 09:45:00 ET

At Elliott Wave International, we have been forecasting the markets for 30 years. We can help you understand how the markets work and teach you a popular forecasting method that may help you formulate a trading strategy: Elliott wave analysis. It's a method many traders use, because it helps you to accomplish three crucial goals: Identify the trend, stay with it, and know when the trend is likely over. And you're in luck! Because from noon to noon on August 20 through August 27, you can have full, free access to Elliott Wave International's forex forecasts. Click for details.

The Fall Line-up Preview (In Commodities)

Euan Wilson — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 09:30:00 ET

It's late summer, which means a boring TV schedule with nothing but reruns. If you're a Law & Order or CSI type, you might be longing for some good courtroom drama right now. Look no further than the August issue of Monthly Futures Junctures: Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy is the expert on the witness stand and you, the jury, learn the answers to the commodity market's toughest questions.

Why Are Oil Prices Falling? (Video)

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 08:15:00 ET

Now that oil has taken a 25% dive off that peak (in less than a month!), people are asking – why is the price falling, and so fast? And that's a very good question. Did the global demand for oil suddenly take a u-turn? Is there peace in the Middle East? Have speculators shifted their attention to other markets? Watch this free video for an Elliott wave perspective.

There's a Big Reason To Keep Your Eye on Silver

Editorial Staff — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 03:15:00 ET

Watching a market like silver rise or fall dramatically does take the breath away.Yet Bob Prechter has explained why silver's moves are important not only to investors and traders but also to the U.S. economy as a whole.

Will Tonight Be A Historic Night for Silver?

Mike Drakulich - Senior Metals Analyst — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 01:00:00 ET

EWI Senior Metals Analyst Mike Drakulich published the following urgent message to his Metals Specialty Service subscribers at 8:57 p.m. Eastern time Thursday, Aug. 14. Since then, he has added multiple chart-filled intraday updates, including detailed near-term forecasts for gold and silver.

EURUSD: How To Know The Trend BEFORE The News

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 06:00:00 ET

The U.S. dollar rallied strongly against the euro in intraday trading on August 14, pushing the exchange rate down to $1.4780 – the level the rate hasn't seen since February. What's behind such a persistent show of strength on the dollar's part? As usual, it depends on whom you ask. Here is an elliott wave perspective...