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by
Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/1/2008 6:30:00 PM
About two months ago, on Friday, October 10, a friend of mine called me up and said he wanted my opinion on the stock market. “I’m talking to a buddy in New York, and he says it’s one of those moments when fortunes are made. He says the time to buy is now, when stocks are cheap. What do you think?” What I told him was this: wait. Here's why...
Filed Under:
DJIA, s&p, bargain hunting, stocks are cheap
Category:
Stocks
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by
Vadim Pokhlebkin
11/21/2008 4:45:00 PM
It's common these days to hear people say that, "No one could have predicted the crisis and stock market declines." But here is a chart of Germany's DAX stock index (Europe's equivalent of the DJIA) from January 2007 to the present. Below it are the corresponding "Bottom Line" summary forecasts from Elliott Wave International's monthly European Financial Forecast publication. Take a look...
Filed Under:
dax, european stocks, asian-pacific
Category:
Stocks
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by
Robert Folsom
11/20/2008 6:15:00 PM
It’s not easy to stand apart from mass hysteria—to believe that most of what’s in the financial news is wrong or distorted, to believe that most "important financial people are either lying or deluded—without actually being insane."
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Category:
Stocks
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by
Vadim Pokhlebkin
11/20/2008 6:00:00 PM
The assumption there is always the same: The government is in control of the financial markets, and as long as it pulls on the right levers, the market will obey. It's only when the government makes a mistake, that's when the "bad news" sends the market lower. But this perfectly logical assumption (and many others like it) shatters the moment you look at a chart and compare the dates of some of the bailouts – the "good news" – with what the market did afterwards...
Filed Under:
u.s. treasury, Paulson, bailout
Category:
Stocks
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by
Vadim Pokhlebkin
11/18/2008 4:00:00 PM
Novice traders (and investors) usually think that an accurate forecast is all they need to succeed in the markets. You read one, you open a trade, and then you close it. Buy low, sell high, wham-bam – you're rich. That happens only if you're really, really lucky. But let's consider a certain (very probable) trading scenario...
Filed Under:
trading, stock, ETF, futures, option, currency, Bear market
Category:
Stocks
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by
Robert Folsom
11/17/2008 5:45:00 PM
If this was a publicly-traded enterprise would be the time to take a bet-the-mortgage long position...
Filed Under:
Category:
Stocks
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by
Vadim Pokhlebkin
11/13/2008 5:30:00 PM
Not that we haven't seen markets like these before. Since at least September, volatility in the stock market has been off the charts (no pun intended.) Still, what we witnessed today (Nov. 13) was staggering even if you didn't have an open position. (God help you if you did.)
Filed Under:
volatility, Bear market, bailout, charts
Category:
Stocks
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by
Robert Folsom
11/13/2008 4:30:00 PM
It would be easy enough to shred this analysis with a few facts -- such as CNN's exit polling, which showed that by income, voters earning $200,000 and above went for Obama, 52% to 46%...
Filed Under:
Category:
Stocks
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by
Nico Isaac
11/10/2008 5:00:00 PM
Now that the U.S. stock market has endured its most devastating October in recent memory -- with the Dow Jones Industrial Average more than 40% below its all-time October 2007 peak -- one question rises above the rest: Are stocks at bargain-basement levels? Find out today...
Filed Under:
dow jones industrial average, us stock market, Stocks, dividend yield
Category:
Stocks
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by
Editorial Staff
10/28/2008 9:30:00 AM
Have investors panicked and capitulated yet? Not according to this chart based on volume data since January 2008.
Filed Under:
panic, capitulation, volume
Category:
Stocks
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by
Robert Folsom
10/27/2008 5:15:00 PM
If you need proof that politicians will say anything to get elected, simply consider the sort of stuff they say when they KNOW they can't lose. In one of his three successful runs for governor in Louisiana, Edwin Edwards was so far ahead in the polls that he served up this gem on the day before the vote:
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Category:
Stocks
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by
Vadim Pokhlebkin
10/24/2008 3:30:00 PM
I must be honest: Limit-down trading in the DJIA and S&P futures on Friday morning (October 24) scared me. Yes, I work for Elliott Wave International. Yes, I know that our recent forecasts have been calling for another drop in stocks. But it's one thing to know about a strong probability of a crash. It's quite another to wake up one fine morning and find it staring you in the face.
Filed Under:
limit down, crash, deflation
Category:
Stocks
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by
Vadim Pokhlebkin
10/23/2008 4:15:00 PM
Hedge funds are "supposed to make money in bull and bear market." That's a very important point, because over the past 5 years, many funds have NOT been acting as hedge funds. Instead, just like "day-traders" in the late 1990s, they've not been trading, they've just been buying. Here's how Bob Prechter, EWI's founder and CEO, put it in his May 2008 Elliott Wave Theorist (excerpt)...
Filed Under:
Hedge fund, dick diamond
Category:
Stocks
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by
Robert Folsom
10/22/2008 5:30:00 PM
What's the point of all this? Simply put, nearly one in three trading days in the date range above saw a large move higher, with accompanying "good news" that supposedly drove up the stock market...
Filed Under:
Category:
Stocks
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by
Nico Isaac
10/22/2008 10:00:00 AM
"Who will be the next President of the United States?" may be the top question on the minds of Americans today, but right behind it is this one: Is the stock market's October 10 low the FINAL bottom?
Filed Under:
u.s. stock market, dow jones industrial average, Dow, S&P 500, bottom
Category:
Stocks
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by
Robert Folsom
10/21/2008 5:15:00 PM
An unending irony is that theoretical work spawns formulas that become the basis of financial models, in which fund managers, bank CEOs and regulators assume place an extraordinary measure of faith. How much faith, you ask? Well, "up to a 99% probability that banks would not lose more than a certain amount of money." That's what I read last week in a Wall Street Journal column about "value at risk," or VaR...
Filed Under:
Category:
Stocks
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by
Robert Folsom
10/20/2008 5:15:00 PM
We've heard and read a lot about what the political leaders of the major industrial nations are doing to stop the bleeding in stocks, unfreeze the credit markets, calm down investors, prop up the banking system, and ward off an economic depression. How a bunch of guys in suits will get all those metaphors done at once I don't know. But they're trying....
Filed Under:
Category:
Stocks
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by
Robert Folsom
10/15/2008 5:30:00 PM
Yes, this shows the same index, nearly one year ago -- October 24, 2007, to be precise. Yes, the arrow points to the same place on the chart. And, yes, it would have been one heck of a forecast at the time
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Category:
Stocks
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by
Robert Folsom
10/13/2008 5:30:00 PM
Yes, I know that Paulson spoke only about buying "financial" shares. But that's what the SEC said a month ago when it made short-selling illegal -- it began with a list of 799 financial stocks that investors could not short. Then the SEC added nearly 200 non-financials, including General Motors and CVS.
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Category:
Stocks
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by
Nico Isaac
10/13/2008 4:45:00 PM
What do all of the following items have in common?
- A needle in a haystack
- A diamond in the rough
- A confident investor in the U.S. stock market
Answer: They’re all next to impossible to find.
Filed Under:
dow jones industrial average, U.S. stocks
Category:
Stocks
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Announcing EWI's New eBook ...
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 This powerful 90-page eBook will help you learn to formulate and execute your own trading strategy by combining wave analysis with Fibonacci relationships.
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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.
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