It is late July, and around my house, that means it’s time to send the kids off to summer camp. My oldest two are teenagers, so they are old hats having gone for several years running. However, my youngest boy, 9 years old, is going away for a week for the first time.
Not that he was in a panic, but certainly nervous – as we methodically go through the camp checklist to pack his trunk for the week. And while we were packing, it suddenly occurred to me what a perfect metaphor that was for the U.S. Treasury’s plan to bail out the government-sponsored enterprises (GSE) like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. (Yes, I think about these things at odd times.)
Let’s see:
Shirts – check.
"Sufficient guarantee to calm the financial markets" – check.
Pants and socks – check.
"Provide an explicit guarantee without resorting to a complete bailout like in Bear Stearns' case" – check.
Going over the camps dos and don'ts, like "don’t kick other campers, or steal their Gameboys." (You either know what those are or you don't.) – check.
"Maintain the corporate structure for now, while altering and strengthening the regulatory authority and oversight of the GSEs" – check.
A backpack for daytrips (camouflage-style for him) – check.
We are all set to go, but the camp trunk is extremely heavy when I put it in the car. I dig through, and, of all things, I find the backpack, with lots of pockets – all of them full of rocks.
“What is this?” I ask.
“I like rocks,” comes the reply.
“But they’re not on the list. They make the backpack way too heavy and you can’t use it like you’re supposed to.”
“OK, but I like rocks. They’re coming with me in my new backpack to the camp.”
The U.S. Treasury plan, for better or worse, is at least a plan – and, judging by last week’s equity rally, fears were assuaged, if only temporarily. But the "trunk is not packed" until the plan is approved by Congress…and it’s full of "pockets":
“Let’s limit executive salaries.”
“Let's attach a measure for federal grants to repurchase distressed or foreclosed properties.”
“Let's tie any equity purchases to the federal debt limit.”
…
"I like rocks."
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Bill Fox is Elliott Wave International's Senior Bonds Analyst and editor of Interest Rates Specialty Service. Bill has been involved in market analysis since graduating in 1988 from Vanderbilt University. He joined EWI in 1994, after managing assets for SunTrust Bank. Most of Bill's subscribers are professional bond traders scattered around the globe. This story originally appeared on the Daily Forecast page for the U.S. 30-year Treasury Bonds, inside Bill's Interest Rates Specialty Service (online now). |